Cost of living showdown could define Australian election

Australia’s next federal election is shaping up to be a battle over the back pocket and the major parties are taking very different approaches to offering relief.

With the stage set for a five-week campaign ending on May 3, 1News Australia correspondent Aziz Al Sa’afin breaks down what you need to know and why the Kiwi vote could matter more than ever.

Prime Minister and Labour Party leader Anthony Albanese is banking on his A$17 billion tax cut package.

It would come into effect in two stages and see around A$10 a week in relief when fully implemented.

While the plan benefits a wide income range, some part-time or lower-income workers could receive as little as A$5 a week, a figure the opposition has seized upon.

Meanwhile, Peter Dutton, leader of the opposition Liberal-National Coalition, is promising more immediate relief at the pump, pledging to halve the fuel excise tax for 12 months if elected.

That would cut 25 cents per litre from the cost of petrol for those living across the ditch.

For a 60-litre tank, that’s a saving of around A$15 per fill, or up to A$780 a year for those refuelling weekly.

It’s shaping up as a clear contest: Albanese offering long-term tax savings vs Dutton’s promise of instant, visible price cuts.

The race is tight and could be heading for a hung parliament.

A YouGov poll conducted between March 14–19, 2025, with a sample size of 1500 voters, showed the major parties locked in a 50–50 two-party preferred split.

A separate Newspoll, reported by The Australian on March 24, has the Coalition slightly ahead on 51% to 49%.

On leadership, Albanese has managed to climb back in the polls and currently leads as preferred Prime Minister with 45%, while Dutton trails with 40%, according to the YouGov March poll.

Neither side is currently on track to secure the 76 seats needed for a clear majority, raising the real possibility of a hung parliament, where independents and minor parties could hold the balance of power.

There are around 670,000 New Zealanders living in Australia, according to the Australian Department of Home Affairs.

Until recently, most New Zealanders were on Special Category Visas (SCVs) and ineligible to vote in federal elections. But in July 2023, the Albanese Government introduced a direct pathway to Australian citizenship, allowing Kiwis who’ve lived in Australia for four years to apply without first gaining permanent residency.

Since then, thousands of Kiwis have already become citizens, including nearly 2000 in a single ceremony in early 2025.

With more Kiwis eligible to vote than ever before, particularly in electorates across Western Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth, their ballots could play a part in determining the election outcome.

Notably, Dutton’s campaign echoes Christopher Luxon’s 2023 strategy, where National campaigned on cutting the regional fuel tax and offering quick cost-of-living wins. They even share similar campaign slogans around getting Back on Track.

As Australia edges closer to the election, one thing is clear: the campaign will be fought in the back pockets of voters and more New Zealanders than ever will have a say in who wins.

But the odds may be against Albanese. Australia hasn’t re-elected a sitting Prime Minister in consecutive elections since John Howard in 2004, with every leader since either losing office or being replaced before they could try.